The Dallas-Fort Worth region, once again, added the most new residents of any metro area in the country -- roughly 400 per day, or a total of 146,238, over the year that ended in July, census data released Thursday shows. That kept D-FW firmly in its spot as the nation's fourth-largest metro, though the region is catching up to Chicago, whose population has been sliding as economic factors tip the scales in favor of Texas, experts say. The thousands of people moving in both from other states and abroad have powered a population boom in Texas and especially in D-FW, where leaders have made a point of pitching its relatively low costs of living and business-friendly regulatory environment to companies located elsewhere. On the list of the counties that saw the biggest gains over the year, six out of 10 were in Texas, including Denton and Collin counties, which were ninth and 10th, respectively.
"When [Collin and Denton] were smaller, they were up in the top 10 in terms of the rate of growth, and now they're cracking the top 10 in terms of numeric growth because the foundation is there," he said. "The economic development that's going on up there is drawing migrants into those counties."
That, he said, is where the Chicago area seems to be struggling.As of January, Chicago's annual job growth had been the slowest of any of the nation's 12 biggest metro areas. In that same report, D-FW ranked second, behind Phoenix, which also added thousands of residents last year. Meanwhile, the Chicago metro lost more than 13,000 residents. Cook County, which is home to Chicago, lost the most people of any county in the country. Potter said he couldn't pinpoint an exact time when D-FW will surpass Chicago, it's possible that it could happen in coming decades. "It depends on what happens in Chicago -- if they continue to lose population and if D-FW continues the pace that it is," he said. "We could see it in the next decade or the one after."
According to projections from Potter's office based on growth trends from 2000 to 2010, D-FW's population is expected to grow to almost 10 million by 2030. And experts don't expect that to slow anytime soon. Still, Potter said that as living costs rise in D-FW and decline in Chicago with shifting demand, some of the differences between the two metros could even out.
Migration into the state, coupled with generally higher fertility among Latinos than in the non-Hispanic white population, has driven an increase in the state's Latino population, according to the Chris Potter with the U.S. Census Bureau.Texas added 234,000 Hispanic residents this past year, the most of any state, bringing the overall Hispanic population to roughly 11.2 million. "We had projected that the Latino population would exceed the ... white population by 2020 and that's probably not going to happen," Potter said. Based on the new trends, he said, he now expects Latinos to outnumber non-Hispanic white people in Texas by 2022. That's probably a result of a slight decline in birth rates among Latinos as well as a slowing of immigration from Mexico and other Latin American countries over the last decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Meanwhile, growth in the state's white population has effectively flattened. In any case, demographers have said for years that Texas' increasing ethnic diversity will shape the state's future. The Lone Star State's populations of Asians and people who identified as two or more races both grew by about 4 percent over the year. And at 3.8 million, Texas had the largest black or African-American population of any state in the country.
Experts caution against expecting demographic shifts — which tend to move slowly — to immediately translate into political shifts. In Texas, at least, Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson told The Dallas Morning News when former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez became the first Latina to win a major-party nomination for governor, "there's a 20-year gulf between where we are now and when a Hispanic electorate will help create a [Democratic] majority."
Homebuyers are getting a double whammy. "Home prices are up and mortgage rates are up," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist with CoreLogic. Nationwide home prices are almost 7 percent higher than a year ago. And the average long-term mortgage cost has risen by seven tenths of a percentage point interest compared with this time in 2017, according to CoreLogic. "That translates into a 16 percent increase in the monthly principal and interest payments to buy the same house," Nothaft said. For the first-time homebuyer there is a 19 percent increase from one year ago. "Average wages around the country are up only 2.5 percent to 3 percent from a year ago. Each passing month as prices rise and mortgage rates rise, it's increasingly challenging for home buyers, especially entry-level homebuyers," he said. "The pinch it takes out of their monthly budget starts to affect more and more buyers across the country." Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the markets with record-high home costs. While overall median home prices in North Texas are up about 5 percent so far in 2018, prices for the most affordable houses — under $200,000 — are rising at almost twice that rate. CoreLogic is forecasting further increases in home prices and interest rates in the year ahead.
It is undeniable that America has a new spring in its step. After a decade of malaise the American economy is the envy of the world today. A new report by the Switzerland-based Competitiveness Center reports:
"The U.S. dethroned Hong Kong to retake first place among the world's most competitive economies, thanks to faster economic growth
and a supportive atmosphere for scientific and technological innovation."
But the ultimate judge of all this is the American people — the voters. They know something big is going on here. In the years before the election of 2016 about 3 of 10 voters described the economy as good or great. This year 7 in 10 do. That surge in optimism began immediately after the 2016 election and hasn't subsided. The same trend is true for small and manufacturing business confidence. Up, up and away. Perhaps the best news of all is to think that maybe some economists are right and that the economic thrust from the tax cut hasn't even kicked in yet. If that's true, then buckle up, because we're in for a heck of a ride.
Dallas continues to add over 100,000 jobs annually and the unemployment rate has remained at 3.6 percent, a very low level not seen in the past 20 years. While the outlook is for continued rapid growth in the region, it depends critically on a steady flow of workers into the state and on trade-friendly policies. Already the fourth largest metro area, Dallas-Fort Worth is growing faster than the nation — about 2 percentage points faster so far this year. However, this outsized performance is only possible with robust labor force expansion. The D-FW labor force increased 3.1 percent over the past year, while the participation rate — the share of people working or seeking employment — was little changed. Thus, the bulk of workforce growth is due to migration. Net migration from other U.S. states was responsible for 40 percent of D-FW's population increase in 2017, while arrivals from other countries accounted for 20 percent. In fact, since 2010, D-FW has had the highest population gains from total net migration among all U.S. metro areas.
A Net Loss of One Million in Past 10 Years
Texas is the Top Destination
Say goodbye to Hollywood, as Billy Joel sang in 1976. Now, in the midst of a deepening housing crisis, thousands of people, all around the Golden State, are following that advice. Over a million more people moved out of California from 2006 to 2016 than moved in, according to a new report, due mainly to the state's infamously high housing costs, which hit lower-income people hardest. Realtor.com found that so-called outbound searches of real-estate listings in California's 16 top markets were more than double the rate of other areas — and growing. California saw the largest exodus of workers in accommodation, construction, manufacturing and retail industries. And where those refugees head may say a lot about why they're going. The top five destinations for California migrants between 2014 and 2016 were the relatively nearby, but generally less costly, states of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.
ATTOM Data Solutions
Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the top cities in the country for home flips in first quarter of 2018. D-FW ranked ninth among the metro areas with the most home purchases and quick resales in the three-month period, according to a new report by Attom Data Solutions. More than 1,200 home flips were counted in the D-FW area — almost 8 percent of the total home purchases. Local flips were up 2 percent from first quarter 2017. Nationwide home flips were basically unchanged from a year earlier and accounted for just under 7 percent of total U.S. home purchases. Still, more than 48,000 homes around the country were flipped in the first quarter, according to Attom Data. "The 2018 housing market is a double-edged sword for home flippers," Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at Attom Data Solutions, said in a statement. "Rapidly rising home prices boosted by low available inventory of homes for sale or for rent are padding profits at the back end when flippers sell, but those same market realities are eroding flipping returns at the front end by forcing flippers to pay more to acquire homes to flip." In the D-FW area, the average flipper profited by $44,811 when a house resold. The median price of local flip homes was $244,811.
While North Texas home price gains are slowing, the Dallas-Fort Worth area is still on a watch list of U.S. markets where residential values are overheated. Las Vegas, Portland, D-FW, Seattle and Phoenix were all on Fitch Ratings' latest list of home markets that are most overvalued. Las Vegas is the most overheated market, with home values 20 percent to 24 percent over what the analysts consider sustainable, the Wall Street ratings firm said in its new report. In the D-FW area, home values are 10 percent to 14 percent overvalued by Fitch Ratings' estimates. That's about the same rate of excess pricing the analysts cited a year ago. Nationwide, home prices rose by 7 percent annually in the first quarter, Fitch Ratings said. "Home-price growth in most regions remains largely in line with long-term sustainable levels," Fitch's report said. "However, some pockets appear to be overheating. "Several major cities in Texas also appear to be currently 10 percent to 14 percent overvalued," Fitch said. "The home price growth rate in these areas is two times to three times faster than the growth rates of their fundamental factors such as rents or income last quarter. In its rating analysis of residential mortgage pools, Fitch adjusts the home values in these areas to reflect the increased risk of a correction in the future." North Texas home prices rose by about 4 percent in the first five months of 2018 compared to the same period last year.